The housing sector in particular appears to be cooling.

The underlying trend in employment growth is pretty good. With the unemployment rate down to 5 percent and inflation expectations up over the last couple of months, we do see more acceleration in wages. For now the Fed will keep moving on its stated path.

I don't think either of them tell the real story.

It's certainly consistent with the idea that the upturn has ended.

It's certainly consistent with the idea that the upturn has ended, ... These numbers are so volatile that its hard to get caught up with one month too much.

The numbers are continuing to signal strength in manufacturing. Inventories are lean, and so if anything, that's going to add to growth for the next several months.

It's not 100 percent clear where housing really is, ... But the weight of the evidence is that it's not as strong as this number on new home sales implies.

It was fun seeing different people and their reactions.

At best, it's going to eat into their own sales. People are going out later, and you don't tend to drink Guinness late at night. It's hard to imagine something so similar to Guinness changing that.

The bottom line is housing is not plunging and it's not soaring, ... There are signs that housing is peaking, but there is no evidence that housing is weakening sharply.